NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Thu Apr 16 6:52 pm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162252
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau just south of Bissau and extends south-southwestward
to 05N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to south
of the Equator at 43W and to near the Amazon Delta region. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
19W-23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh southeast winds and along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present in the eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward
to near 24N. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft are over the rest of the basin, except for slightly
lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southeastern part of the Gulf.
For the forecast a ridge across the northern Gulf will remain in
place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will
allow fresh to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building
seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat
night through the early part of the week. The front will stall
from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then
dissipate through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north-
central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic
and ABC Islands as well as over sections of the northeastern
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. A surface trough extends from
the western Atlantic to the east-central interior of Haiti.
Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is present across most of
the sea. Moderate to locally fresh east- northeast to east-
southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the lee of
Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Latest
scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate east-southeast
to southeast winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are about
2 to 4 ft with these winds.
For the west of 95N, the aforementioned mid to upper-level low
is expected to become absorbed into a trough by early on Fri
as the trough shifts eastward toward the northeastern Caribbean
Sat. The surface trough will disrupt the typical pressure
pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh trade
winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia overnight, then
mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected there during the
remainder of the week. Winds and seas will generally diminish
across the basin as the trough passes north of the area Fri
through
AXNT20 KNHC 162252
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea-Bissau just south of Bissau and extends south-southwestward
to 05N18W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to south
of the Equator at 43W and to near the Amazon Delta region. Scattered
moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between
19W-23W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A ridge extends southwestward from a 1023 mb high near the
Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh southeast winds and along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are
present in the eastern Bay of Campeche and extending northward
to near 24N. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates
gentle to moderate east to southeast winds winds and seas of
3 to 5 ft are over the rest of the basin, except for slightly
lower seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southeastern part of the Gulf.
For the forecast a ridge across the northern Gulf will remain in
place and slowly weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will
allow fresh to strong winds to pulse during the evenings. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building
seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat
night through the early part of the week. The front will stall
from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then
dissipate through Tue.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A mid to upper-level low dropping southward over the north-
central Dominican Republic is helping to sustain scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Dominican Republic
and ABC Islands as well as over sections of the northeastern
Caribbean, including Puerto Rico. A surface trough extends from
the western Atlantic to the east-central interior of Haiti.
Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime is present across most of
the sea. Moderate to locally fresh east- northeast to east-
southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the lee of
Cuba, near the Windward Passage and near the ABC Islands. Latest
scatterometer satellite data shows gentle to moderate east-southeast
to southeast winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are about
2 to 4 ft with these winds.
For the west of 95N, the aforementioned mid to upper-level low
is expected to become absorbed into a trough by early on Fri
as the trough shifts eastward toward the northeastern Caribbean
Sat. The surface trough will disrupt the typical pressure
pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh trade
winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia overnight, then
mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected there during the
remainder of the week. Winds and seas will generally diminish
across the basin as the trough passes north of the area Fri
through