NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Thu Oct 16 7:38 pm
000
AXNT20 KNHC 162338
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Large Swell:
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters N of the discussion area will support rough to
very rough seas over the western Atlantic Fri through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W on Friday. The area of
12 ft seas will spread SE on Sat, covering the waters N of 27N
between 50W and 70W by Sat night. The swell will then start to
subside over the discussion waters, falling below 12 ft Sun night.
Seas with this swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters N of
30N between 55W and 65W on Sat.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34.5W S of
15N, and moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 31W
and 39W.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W S of
14N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 49W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to near 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 06.5N31W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N
east of 31W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 25.5N93W
southeastward through the Yucatan Channel. Isolated thunderstorms
are occurring in the vicinity of the trough. Weak ridging extends
over the rest of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are occurring in the central and eastern
Gulf to east of the surface trough, with light to gentle winds
and 1 to 2 ft seas noted in the west-central through southwestern
basin.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
early next week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas over much of the basin. A cold front may reach
the northern Gulf waters by Sun night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward through northern Hispaniola and just south of Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near this front
in the north-central Caribbean, and gusty winds and rapidly
building seas are likely near this activity. Elsewhere, a surface
trough has been analyzed from the central Gulf of America through
the Yucatan Channel, and moderate NE winds are occurring to the
east of this feature in the lee of Cuba.
AXNT20 KNHC 162338
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Oct 17 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Atlantic Large Swell:
Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over
the Atlantic waters N of the discussion area will support rough to
very rough seas over the western Atlantic Fri through this
weekend. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will propagate into
the discussion waters between 60W and 70W on Friday. The area of
12 ft seas will spread SE on Sat, covering the waters N of 27N
between 50W and 70W by Sat night. The swell will then start to
subside over the discussion waters, falling below 12 ft Sun night.
Seas with this swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters N of
30N between 55W and 65W on Sat.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
The axis of an central Atlantic tropical wave is near 34.5W S of
15N, and moving west around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 31W
and 39W.
The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 46W S of
14N, and moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 40W and 49W.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW
to near 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 06.5N31W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N
east of 31W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A surface trough extends from the central Gulf near 25.5N93W
southeastward through the Yucatan Channel. Isolated thunderstorms
are occurring in the vicinity of the trough. Weak ridging extends
over the rest of the basin. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E
winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are occurring in the central and eastern
Gulf to east of the surface trough, with light to gentle winds
and 1 to 2 ft seas noted in the west-central through southwestern
basin.
For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
early next week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas over much of the basin. A cold front may reach
the northern Gulf waters by Sun night.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic
southwestward through northern Hispaniola and just south of Cuba.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near this front
in the north-central Caribbean, and gusty winds and rapidly
building seas are likely near this activity. Elsewhere, a surface
trough has been analyzed from the central Gulf of America through
the Yucatan Channel, and moderate NE winds are occurring to the
east of this feature in the lee of Cuba.