NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Thu Jan 15 1:15 am
000
AXNT20 KNHC 150615
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf will
move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by
Thu evening. The front will be followed by fresh to near gale-
force NW to N winds and rough seas. Frequent gusts to gale force
are expected across the coastal waters of the NE Gulf,
particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL tonight into
early Thu morning. Conditions will improve across the Gulf region
Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong
northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend,
potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico
and Veracruz on Sun.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW waters, extending
from 31N75W to Freeport, Bahamas where it then stalls to W Cuba,
will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extend from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and
weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale
force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by Thu evening. A
reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming
weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.
Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ begins
near 04N11W and continues along 02N30W to 03N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 14W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.
A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
Mexico. Gust to gale force winds and very rough seas to 12 ft are
ongoing ahead of the front in the NE Gulf while recent
scatterometer data show strong to near gale-force NW winds
following the front. Observations across the north-central and NW
Gulf show seas to 8 ft with these winds. Scattered to isolated
showers are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf waters.
For the forecast, the cold front will move rapidly across the
basin, shifting southeast of the area by this evening. The front
is followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will
improve from NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing
front and surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the
basin this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean due to the passage
of a cold front N of the area is supporting light to gentle winds
and slight
AXNT20 KNHC 150615
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW Gulf will
move rapidly across the basin, shifting southeast of the area by
Thu evening. The front will be followed by fresh to near gale-
force NW to N winds and rough seas. Frequent gusts to gale force
are expected across the coastal waters of the NE Gulf,
particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL tonight into
early Thu morning. Conditions will improve across the Gulf region
Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to strong
northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend,
potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico
and Veracruz on Sun.
Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front over the NW waters, extending
from 31N75W to Freeport, Bahamas where it then stalls to W Cuba,
will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and
extend from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and
weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas will
accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale
force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by Thu evening. A
reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the upcoming
weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.
Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 09N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ begins
near 04N11W and continues along 02N30W to 03N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 00N to 04N between 14W and 27W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for
the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special
Features section for more details.
A cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico,
Mexico. Gust to gale force winds and very rough seas to 12 ft are
ongoing ahead of the front in the NE Gulf while recent
scatterometer data show strong to near gale-force NW winds
following the front. Observations across the north-central and NW
Gulf show seas to 8 ft with these winds. Scattered to isolated
showers are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf waters.
For the forecast, the cold front will move rapidly across the
basin, shifting southeast of the area by this evening. The front
is followed by increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will
improve from NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing
front and surge of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the
basin this weekend.
...CARIBBEAN SEA...
A weak pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean due to the passage
of a cold front N of the area is supporting light to gentle winds
and slight