NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
Wed Jun 17 1:59 am
000
AXNT20 KNHC 170559
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.7N 97.2W at
17/0600 UTC or 10 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 9 ft. Strong showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over the NW Gulf, well east of the center. The system is
moving toward the northeast and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move along or
roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast today. The system is
expected to move farther inland over extreme eastern Texas or
southwestern Louisiana tonight. The disturbance is forecast to
gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm today.
Weakening is anticipated by tonight when the system moves farther
inland. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 04N to 09N and between 28W and 37W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the trough axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below
with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower and
thunderstorm activity over Central America.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection
is observed from 03N to 10N and east of 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 03N and between 41W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One along the southern Texas coast.
The disturbance near the southern Texas coast and surface trough
over the NW Gulf combine to producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters, while generally dry
conditions are present elsewhere. Outside of the influence of PTC
One, moderate to fresh easterly winds and
AXNT20 KNHC 170559
TWDAT
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0555 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Potential Tropical Cyclone One is centered near 27.7N 97.2W at
17/0600 UTC or 10 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas, moving NE at 4
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 9 ft. Strong showers and thunderstorms are
occurring over the NW Gulf, well east of the center. The system is
moving toward the northeast and this general motion with an
increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of
days. On the forecast track, the disturbance should move along or
roughly parallel to the upper Texas coast today. The system is
expected to move farther inland over extreme eastern Texas or
southwestern Louisiana tonight. The disturbance is forecast to
gradually strengthen and could become a tropical storm today.
Weakening is anticipated by tonight when the system moves farther
inland. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated higher totals near
20 inches, through Thursday from the Mid and Upper Texas coast
east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and
the Florida Panhandle. This could generate dangerous to
life-threatening flash flooding.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest One
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
for more details.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 32W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 04N to 09N and between 28W and 37W.
A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 53W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted
near the trough axis.
A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 70W, south of 17N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is described below
with the monsoon trough and ITCZ.
A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is enhancing the shower and
thunderstorm activity over Central America.
...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 06N30W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N33W to 00N50W. Isolated moderate convection
is observed from 03N to 10N and east of 28W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 03N and between 41W and 46W.
...GULF OF AMERICA...
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One along the southern Texas coast.
The disturbance near the southern Texas coast and surface trough
over the NW Gulf combine to producing showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the northern Gulf waters, while generally dry
conditions are present elsewhere. Outside of the influence of PTC
One, moderate to fresh easterly winds and